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Short-term inflow forecast

5-day forecasting services of discharge in small and big rivers.   

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Water predictions for the next 5 days

The water regime in rivers is the result of a complex hydrological balance occurring in the upstream catchment. The prediction of water discharge in the short term requires not only a high-resolution weather forecast, but also a view on other water sources like snow melting, evapo-transpiration and ground waters.

“How much water will flow to my plant in the next days? Will I be subject to an extreme event?”

Addressing these questions is necessary to optimize the planning of a plant and cope with flood events.

Current approach on short-term forecasts

Current prediction methods generally use a empirical approach. Precipitation forecasts feed a simple model based on the  the flow recorded in the previous days and corrected by the water manager  personal experience.

This approach is subject to several drawbacks:

  • Poor water and snow separation: the snow is generally overlooked;

  • Inefficiencies: this approach is subject to the “feeling” of one person rather than on a scientific approach, with consequent difficulty in replicating the procedure in case of absence or retirement of the manager;

  • Not scalable: the approach is very site-dependent and cannot easily be exported elsewhere;

  • Climate change non compliant: global warming has made extreme events more likely and unpredictable.

New technology for short-term forecasts

Waterjade has developed a proprietary calculation algorithm, a blend of physically-based models and artificial intelligence, finalized to predict water inflow to production plants.

It takes in input many and different data sources available in the upstream catchment, like satellite images, numerical weather predictions and in-situ observations.

The advantages are:

  • Water and snow separation: we can calculate the contribution of snow melt, with consequent higher accuracy;

  • Basin configuration: the approach can be exported in whatever basin configuration;

  • International: waterjade can be applied in whatever climatic condition and everywhere in the World;

  • Improved accuracy: compared with state-of-the-art methods, we can reduce the forecast errors by 50%;

  • The approach uses historical data just for the calibration of the model, and so the forecasts are climate change compliant.

Applications

Hydropower plants

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